• 2020 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2021 Forecast

  • Cycle of publication: Annual
    Date of completion: Dec, 2020


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SUMMARY

Thermal coal prices show a "V-pattern" trend in 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic hits China and the world. On the supply side, investigations on coal-related corruption and illegal activities in the past two decades in Inner Mongolia restrict coal production. Amid structural supply imbalance at ports, coal prices enter the "red zone".In the fourth quarter, as supply guarantee task is prioritized in the winter season, policies target on easing import coal curbs in specific regions and accelerating capacity release in main producing areas, mitigating the supply tightness. The policy fundamentals focus on ensuring safe production, strengthening environmental protection and combating air pollution, controlling coal imports and shifting roadway logistics to railway transportation, with an aim to stabilize coal prices in the "green zone".


INTRODUCTION

As approaching the end of 2020, Fenwei is timely releasing “2020 China Thermal Coal Market Study and 2021 Outlook”, to review and forecast important policies affecting coal industry development and market operation, and also provide detailed analysis and forecast for 2021 from the perspectives of macro and industrial environments, demand, supply, price, logistics, import & export, etc.

 

China Macro Economy Review and Outlook

1.1 2020 China's economic growth shows a "slow V" path due to the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic

1.2 2021 macro economy development outlook

2020 Coal Industry Policies and 2021 Developing Trend Outlook

2.1 Coal de-capacity and capacity release policies

2.2 Safety and environmental policies

2.2.1 Safety inspection policies

2.2.2 Environmental inspection and other policies

2.2.3 Interpretation on “Air Pollution Treatment in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Surrounding Areas during the Autumn and Winter of 2020-2021” 

2.2.4 2021 safety and environmental policies developing trend forecast

2.3 Coal import policies

2.3.1 2020 import policy review

2.3.2 2021 import policy developing trend forecast

2020 China Thermal Coal Demand Analysis and 2021 Forecast

3.1 2020 China thermal coal consumption analysis

3.2 Power sector

3.2.1 2020 thermal coal demand

3.2.2 2020 power industry operation

3.2.3 2021 thermal coal demand forecast

3.3 Iron and steel industry

3.3.1 2020 thermal coal demand

3.3.2 2021 thermal coal demand forecast

3.4 Building materials industry

3.4.1 2020 thermal coal demand

3.4.2 2021 thermal coal demand forecast 

3.5 Coal chemical industry

3.5.1 2020 thermal coal demand

3.5.2 2021 thermal coal demand forecast 

3.6 Heating supply and other industries

3.6.1 2020 thermal coal demand

3.6.2 2021 thermal coal demand forecast

3.7 2021 total thermal coal demand forecast

2020 China Thermal Coal Supply Analysis and 2021 Forecast

4.1 Thermal coal capacity analysis and forecast

4.1.1 2020 thermal coal capacity

4.1.2 2020 effective thermal coal capacity and composition

4.1.3 2021 newly-added thermal coal capacity forecast

4.2 Thermal coal supply analysis and forecast

4.2.1 2020 thermal coal supply

4.2.2 2021 thermal coal supply forecast

4.3 2020 coal stock developing trend analysis and forecast

4.3.1 At main producing areas

4.3.2 At transfer ports

4.3.3 At key utilities

4.3.4 2021 total coal stock forecast

2020 China Thermal Coal Import & Export Analysis and 2021 Forecast

5.1 China coal and thermal coal imports

5.1.1 2020 thermal coal imports

5.1.2 2021 thermal coal import forecast

5.2 China coal and thermal coal exports

5.2.1 2020 thermal coal exports

5.2.2 2021 thermal coal export forecast

2020 China Thermal Coal Transport Analysis and 2021 Forecast

6.1 2020 coal transport volumes

6.1.1 Roadway

6.1.2 Railway

6.1.3 Shipment of Bohai Rim ports

6.2 2021 roadway/railway under-construction and capacity expanding projects

6.2.1 Railway under-construction and capacity expanding projects

6.2.2 Roadway under-construction and capacity expanding projects

6.3 2020 transport freight analysis and 2021 forecast

6.3.1 Roadway

6.3.2 Railway

6.3.3 Waterway

2020 China Thermal Coal Price Review and 2021 Forecast

7.1 2020 thermal coal supply-demand balance analysis

7.2 2020 China thermal coal price trend analysis

7.3 2021 thermal coal price trend forecast

7.3.1 Price influencing factors

7.3.2 2021 thermal coal price forecast 

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