• H1 2018 China Thermal Coal Market Review and 2H 2018 Outlook

  • Date of completion: Jul, 2018

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China's economy has been growing steadily in 1H18. Under the context, coal production picked up moderately. Supply-side reforms including de-capacity and construction of advanced capacity have forged ahead in an orderly manner. The policies have constantly strengthened. As coal prices head upward, profitability of the coal industry has improved continuously. The profits over Jan-Apr totaled 101.9 bln yuan, up 15.5% YoY.

Fenwei Energy is now timely releasing "H1 2018 China Thermal Coal Market Review and H2 2018 Outlook", analyzing thermal coal market in 1H18 from policy evolutions, consumptions in main downstream industries, coal production and supply, market prices, logistics and imports & exports, and provide an explicit anticipation in 2H18.The report incorporates abundant data, figures and technical parameters, which shall definitely act as a valuable reference for professionals and market players in the coal industry.


Part 1: H1 2018 China Thermal Coal Market Review

1. Macro-economic Background

    1.1 Economic overview-GDP, FAI, IVA, PMI ...

    1.2 Changes of energy consumption mix-proportion of fossil energy, energy consumption per unit GDP

2. Thermal Coal Demand

    2.1 China total thermal coal consumption

    2.2 Operations of key downstream industries and their thermal coal consumptions

          2.2.1 Operation of power sector and its thermal coal consumption

          2.2.2 Operation of steel industry and its thermal coal consumption

          2.2.3 Operation of building materials industry and its thermal coal consumption

          2.2.4 Operation of chemical industry and its thermal coal consumption

          2.2.5 Operation of other industries and their thermal coal consumptions

    2.3 Impact analysis of environmental protection and air pollution prevention & control actions

3. Major Policies Affecting Development and Market of Coal Industry

    3.1 Supply-side reforms

          3.1.1 De-capacity

          3.1.2 Construction and upward verification of advanced capacity

    3.2 Safeguarding safety production

    3.3 Stabilizing coal prices

    3.4 Environmental protection and air pollution control

    3.5 Regulating coal imports & exports

4. Thermal Coal Supply

    4.1 Thermal coal production capacity

    4.2 Thermal coal supply in whole China

    4.3 Thermal coal supply by province

    4.4 Thermal coal stocks-at mines, transfer ports and power plants

5. Thermal Coal Imports & Exports

    5.1 China total coal imports-thermal coal, coking coal

    5.2 China thermal coal imports

          5.2.1 By coal type

          5.2.2 By origin

          5.2.3 By province

          5.2.4 By major importers

    5.3 China thermal coal exports

          5.3.1 Total exports

          5.3.2 Exporting destinations

6. Thermal Coal Logistics

    6.1 Coal transport flows and volume

    6.2 Shipping coal volume at China northern ports

    6.3 Coal transport via railways

          6.3.1 Total railing volume

          6.3.2 Daqin Railway (Datong-Qinhuangdao)

          6.3.3 Shenshuohuang Railway (Shenchi-Shuozhou-Huanghua)

    6.4 Coal transport costs-railway, roadway and shipping freights

7. Thermal Coal Supply & Demand and Price Changes

    7.1 Thermal coal supply and demand balance

    7.2 Thermal coal price categories and price changes

          7.2.1 Long-term contract price

          7.2.2 Spot price-at main producing areas, transfer ports and consuming places

          7.2.3 Import prices

Part 2: H2 2018 China Thermal Coal Market Outlook

8. Macro-economic Outlook

9. Thermal Coal Demand Forecast

    9.1 China total thermal coal demand forecast

    9.2 Thermal coal demand forecast by industry

          9.2.1 Power sector-thermal power installed capacity, generation volume and coal consumption

          9.2.2 Steel sector-crude steel/pig iron output, coal consumption of blast furnaces and sintering equipment

          9.2.3 Building materials industry-cement/cement clinker output and coal consumption

          9.2.4 Chemical industry

         Traditional coal chemical-methanol, synesthetic ammonia

         Modern coal chemical- CTL, CTG

          9.2.5 Demand forecast in other industries

10. Trend of Policies Affecting Coal Industry and Market Operation

      10.1 Supply-side reforms-de-capacity, construction of advanced capacity

      10.2 Supply-execution of long-term coal contracts, release of advanced capacity, rhythm of de-capacity campaign ...

      10.3 Price-long-term contract/spot coal price, price monitoring, rectifying market order, coal inspection tickets

      10.4 Safety-safety production supervision, inspections on illegal & incompliance and over-capacity production

      10.5 Environmental protection-environmental inspections and air pollution treatment

      10.6 Imports & exports regulation

11. Thermal Coal Supply Forecast

      11.1 Thermal coal production capacity forecast-capacity of operating, construction-completed and under-construction mines

      11.2 Thermal coal supply forecast

      11.3 Thermal coal imports & exports forecast

12. Thermal coal logistics forecast

      12.1 Transport capacity forecast of main railway lines

      12.2 Change forecast of roadway transport landscape

      12.3 Railing, trucking and shipping freight forecast

13. Thermal Coal Supply & Demand and Price Forecast

      13.1 Thermal coal supply & demand balance forecast

      13.2 Thermal coal price forecast

             13.2.1 Price-affecting factors analysis -policies, supply & demand, costs, transport…

             13.2.2 Monthly thermal coal price forecast (monthly average price forecast, taking Q5500 FOB at QHD Port as the object)